These effects will have particularly important security implications for major legacy hydrocarbon producers and countries that invested heavily in energy exploration and infrastructure during the 21st-century commodity … National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. This conference explores the national security and economic implications of climate change on the current and future security landscape. Under this broader construct of threat, non-state actors, such as climate, economic volatility, or even nationalist political trends present a threat to the United States. Naval Forces (9780309154253): National Research Council, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Naval Studies Board, Committee on National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Greater displays of partnership with the Nordic countries are essential to compete against adversaries. Climate change heightens national security threats for states, and in particular, changes the calculus for the world’s superpower, the United States. Amazon.com: National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. This instability may provide fodder for terrorist organizations, which are adept at exploiting instability to recruit foot soldiers for extremist causes.6. This August, Russia installed a nuclear power station in the Arctic, despite the concerns of activists over possible accidents with detrimental long-term environmental effects.32. CCS is a nonpartisan research institute of the Council of Strategic Risks that supports policies that will best manage the effects of climate change on security. A common ingredient in each is that they respect no international boundaries.”35 Most recently, in the 2015 National Security Strategy, the Obama Administration described climate change as, “an urgent and growing threat to our national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over basic resources like food and water.”36 A realistic national security strategy must address climate change as an explicit threat. 29 U.S. Northern Command, Specific Mission. “What the New US Coast Guard Strategy Tells Us About the Arctic Anno 2019,” High North News, April 25, 2019. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/what-new-us-coast-guard-strategy-tells-us-about-arctic-anno-2019, 24 U.S. Coast Guard, United States Coast Guard Arctic Strategy, April 2019. https://www.uscg.mil/ Portals/0/Images/arctic/Arctic_Strategic_Outlook_APR_2019.pdf, 25 Martinez, Luis, “Why the US Navy sails past disputed artificial islands claimed by China,” ABC News, May 6, 2019. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-navy-sails-past-disputed-artificial-islands-claimed/story?id=60993256, 26 People’s Republic of China, China’s Arctic Policy, January 2018. http://www.scio.gov.cn/ zfbps/32832/Document/1618243/1618243.htm, 27 National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020, H.R. Some present information on historically observed changes (e.g., temperature, precipitation) while others project changes into the future based on alternative scenarios (e.g. Although climate change is first and foremost dealt within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and now also under the Paris agreement, the security implications of climate change do not have an institutional home within the United Nations system, and hence remain largely unaddressed, in spite of the urgency of the threat it poses to peace and security in several regions. A forward presence is required by the Coast Guard to uphold sovereignty. T raditionally, the primary security concerns of the United States and other nations have included the prevention of external assault, the prevention of insurrections and other large-scale domestic violence, and the maintenance of the political and economic stability of the state. Indeed, both the congressionally-mandated 2018 National Climate Assessment (NCA) and United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports make clear that … Extreme weather also prevents the requisite conditions for training, which in turn leaves the military unable to adequately maintain readiness levels in preparation of conflict. The House Intelligence Committee held a hearing on the implications of climate change on national security. The National Security Strategy of the United States of America. When considering natural or environmental conditions such as climate change, however, threats must be understood from a wholistic perspective: any factor that has the capacity and ability to impede a state’s objective may be threatening, regardless of intent. 28 U.S. Coast Guard, “Timeline of Coast Guard Organizational History” United States Department of Homeland Security. Furthermore, this omission directly contradicts the national security strategies of prior administrations that recognized climate change as a threat to U.S. interests. To avoid these pitfalls in an increasingly complex threat environment, greater flexibility should be permitted in order to enable the Department of Defense to transfer and reprogram funds more easily. Climate Change and the National Defense Authorization Act (FY18-FY20), June 2020; Climate Change Implications for U.S. Military Aircraft, August 2019; The U.S. Department of Defense’s Forthcoming Climate Change Vulnerability Report: What to Expect and How Congress Should Use It, November 2018 12 Homer-Dixon, Thomas, Environmental Scarcity and Intergroup Conflict, World Security: Challenges for a New Century. While the current defense budget is nominally intended to modernize the force, it does not adequately address the threat of climate change on equipment even though it upgrades unit-by-unit readiness and increases force size and structure.17 Budgets, by their nature, signal the priorities of an administration. Naval War College mace" src="https://dnnlgwick.blob.core.windows.net/portals/0/Images/Menu/Menu-Academics&Programs.jpg?sr=b&si=DNNFileManagerPolicy&sig=nXsWrB8zrdqiWhtDhqLPe4cLW4U6GZzi%2B9Y1t9yu0ww%3D" style="max-width: 250px;" />, McCarty Little Hall building, Anchor on U.S. In response to the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), the National Research Council appointed a committee operating under the auspices of the Naval Studies Board to study the national security implications of climate change for U.S. naval forces. Wanted to Hide Nukes in the Arctic Ice Tunnels. The National Security Implications of Climate Change | SIGNAL Magazine Near-peer adversaries are looking to take advantage in the Arctic region, enabling by ice melt and thinning due to climate change. This is complicated: The second-order effects of attempts to mitigate climate change will have seismic effects for global energy systems. The accelerating rate of decline in Arctic sea ice, which has now reached 12.8 percent over each decade relative to the 1981-2010 average, has enabled more military and economic activity in the region.1 In order to better understand the national security implications of climate change, three topics must be explored: (1) the changing definition of threats; (2) budget prescription and flexibility, and; (3) developing new approaches towards a changing Arctic. ), Member, Military Advisory Board, Center for Naval Analyses Corporation report National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, before the Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate, May 9, 2007. The White House also released a new report on the national security implications of climate change and how the Federal government is rising to the challenge. “Trump Budget Boosts Nuclear Efforts,” Arms Control Today, April 2019. https:// www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-04/news/trump-budget-boosts-nuclear-efforts, 20 Office of the Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller) “Defense Budget Overview: United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2020 Budget Request” Department of Defense, March 2019. https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2020/fy2020_Budget_Request_ Overview_Book..pdf, 21 Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, “Reports on Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department of Defense” Department of Defense, January 2019. https://www. The latter, once a barren region, is now occupied by more than nine countries including Russia, China and the United States.  Heightened social and political tensions. Climate change and its resulting effects are likely to pose wide-ranging national security challenges for the United States and other countries over the next 20 years through the following pathways:  Threats to the stability of countries. June 2013. Naval Forces The leaders of the U.S. Navy, Coast Guard, and Marine Corps have recognized the potential impact of climate change on naval forces' missions and have positioned their organizations to make adaptive changes. Strategically and operationally, this affects both our ally’s and adversary’s behavior leading to the open-ended question—what does it mean if the Department of Defense (DoD) adopts a posture that focuses on the strategic implications of climate change? The budget proposed by the president, and later legislatively codified in the yearly National Defense Authorization Act, is a reflection of both its “great power competition” strategy and the political balance among branches of government. In May 2018, I was among numerous experts who gave evidence to a Senate committee examining the potential impacts of climate change on Australia’s national security. In recent documents the Trump Administration has notably prioritized great power competition with China and Russia over terrorism, evidenced by changes in budget, resources and engagement.33 Yet the Trump administration neglected to acknowledge climate change as a threat in the National Security Strategy.34 This decision is problematic: by omitting particular threats that do not conform to a narrative, the administration constrains its own worldwide threat assessment. Advancing U.S. economic, technological, environmental, security and defense interests in this internationally competitive environment requires a deeper understanding of the “blue” or ocean economy and how that connects to the U.S. naval and national security concerns. … To reduce the national security implications of climate change, combatant commands are integrating climate-related impacts into their planning cycles, officials said. While climate scientists have been aware of the effect of carbon emissions on average worldwide temperatures for several decades, the 2010s have seen consecutive hottest years on record, along with storms, droughts and wildfires of intensifying power and destructiveness. One of the biggest threats I identified was the possibility of mass migration driven by climate change. The “Report on National Security Implications of Climate-Related Risks and a Changing Climate” was provided to Congress yesterday. Naval War College’s (NWC) 2019 graduating class participate in a commencement ceremony on Dewey Field in Newport, R.I., June 14.
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